By quincy0191
1. BMG Will Win a Lot of Games
Can anyone hear me? I’m so far out on this limb, I might be in mortal danger! Oh, wait, that’s entirely expected. If you’re matching BMG up against anyone right now in a three-game series, their history suggest they’ll take it in two games. Yes, even against SynC.
BMG went 4-0 against REXXARS, Shrek is Love, and Team Excellent. The new REXXARS may make an appearance in the Diamond division yet, but they haven’t fared well against the Monkeys. The Last of US managed a single victory in seven games, while Reason Gaming did slightly better, going 2-10.
That leaves two teams: willowkeeper and SynC. Surprisingly – or, more accurately, due to sample size – willowkeeper managed the second-best win rate against BMG, who went 4-1 against them. RootOf_z’s big Riftwalker plays were the only thing stopping yet another shutout.
But of course the big nemesis is SynC. With 15 BMG-SynC games, more than any other matchup, Flensmeister’s crew should be best prepared to knock off the reigning champs.
They’ll have to hope recent roster changes make a difference, though, because the Carnage iteration of BMG brought down a 73.3% win rate against SynC, their lowest in any matchup, but still translating to an 11-4 record. These two teams are often considered the pinnacle of HoN – because they are – but no doubt BMG is a not-insignificant distance ahead of second place.
2. SynC Might Be in Danger
Even more concerning than the distance between first and second place should be the distance between second and third place. Reason Gaming finished third in CiC Cycle 2, beating willowkeeper 2-1. BMG is the only team SynC consistently loses to, but they went just 7-4 against Reason, not exactly a dominant performance.
SynC are only slightly closer to first place than third, and by the numbers even their winning record against Reason might be a fluke. SynC’s average line against Imba and the boys (see what I did there?) is a mediocre 3.7/3.9/7.3, and their GPM advantage is just 15.
Then there’s the REXXARS. The new version is considerably different from the old, but SynC had trouble dealing with them, going 4-2 with an average 4.8/4.4/10.8 line and a middle-of-the-pack 326 GPM. But the thing that stands out is the average game length; REXXARS vs. SynC averaged nearly 43 minutes, the longest average game time. The fact that SynC regularly took so long to beat KNX, and their good but underwhelming record and score, suggest that SynC might be more vulnerable than initially thought.
3. The Battle for Third is Real
Or, forget Rock Paper Scissors, play tUS tree Rea. Check out how the three mid-tier teams fared against each other:
Reason beat tree, tree beat tUS, and tUS beat Reason. Spots one and two in the HoN competitive power rankings are apparently sewn up for now – though we’ll see how long that lasts – but third place is entirely up for grabs. Each of the three main contenders has something to hang their hat on, and each has a weakness.
tUS vs. Rea is the least clear advantage, as The Last of US only went 6-5 and had a negative kill-death score, as well as the lowest average GPM. Then again, they managed the best XPM and the highest creep score.
Overall, it’s hard to pick a real favorite for third place, as each team has its own strengths. All three teams have undergone roster changes in the last few months. Reason frequently pulls out unique heroes like Blood Hunter or Electrician. Willowkeeper are the authors of what I consider the most recent significant innovation, jungle pulling. The Last of US are the most versatile top team right now, both in terms of which heroes they pick and which roles they play.
It’s going to be a great fight.
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