By quincy0191

HoN Tour Season 3 is halfway over, which makes me a little sad. It’s been great so far, and now that we’re on the downhill portion teams will be increasingly desperate for points as their chances slip away. But the midway point offers us a chance to look at how heroes have changed since the first cycle, and possibly make some dumb predictions for cycles five through eight. Let’s start off with the most picked heroes per cycle:

Most Common Heroes by Cycle

I am sensing a theme. Do you see it? It’s pretty subtle, but once you really set your mind to it, you can probably find it. For those who can’t be bothered, I’ll just spell it out: Rhapsody and Magmus are kind of popular. They account for the top six most commonly picked heroes in each cycle, and eight of the top ten spots. Kraken was very popular last cycle, and has two more appearances in the top 20, but in Cycle 1 was selected just eight times (2.6%). Cycle 2 Tempest also shows up in the next 10, but to get to cycles 1 and 3 you need to go 40 spots deep.
Obviously this doesn’t include popular heroes like Swiftblade, Cthuluphant, and Parasite because they’re so commonly banned. Rhapsody and Magmus aren’t necessarily every team’s top picks, they’re just the most often chosen among the heroes that consistently make it through the initial banning phase.

Finally, it’s notable that five of the top 10 have a win% below 50%, including two cycles each from Rhapsody and Magmus. But they move in opposite directions; Cycle 1 and 2 Rhap was great, then she fell off. Magmus started slow and then picked it up in Cycle 3 and 4.

Best Heroes by Cycle

This table was going to go only five deep, but the last three spots are a tie, so it’s only fair to include them. Regardless, Cycle 2 Chipper was amazing, going 8-0, and substantially better than any other single-cycle performance with at least five games. Cycle 4 Empath had a great time of things too, the only hero here that was picked more often than Chipper, and sporting an excellent 9-2 record. Revenant and Gemini were picked just six times in their cycles, and the last three scraped five games together to qualify.

Worst Heroes by Cycle

Teams liked Blood Hunter in Cycle 1, though he was only picked five times. Since then, he’s 0-2 in three total cycles, so it’s safe to say the honeymoon is over. BH is the most-picked hero without a victory. Cycle 4 Pharaoh was shockingly awful considering he was above a 50% win in the first three cycles combined, but he went just 1-7 over the last couple of weekends. Drunken Master’s popularity has fallen off massively since Carnage in Caldavar, and in Cycle 2 he showed why. Unlike Pharaoh, though, he’s never been good, with his best single cycle win% at 37.5% win Cycle 3. Torturer and Hag are in a similar boat; Tort’s the sixth-most popular hero with 53 games, and has the 7th-lowest win% among the 54 heroes that have been played at least five times (35.8%). Hag’s not quite as bad at 42.9% in 35 games, but that still puts her 13th in pick rate and 40th in win rate.

Biggest Win% Jumpers

Cycle 4 Empath wasn’t just the best hero in her cycle and one of the best single-cycle runs of HTS3 so far, it was also a stunning turnaround from her previous performance. She went from a 2-5 disappointment to a 9-2 leader. Nobody else’s transition was quite so drastic, though it’s kind of funny that Revenant went from slightly below-average in Cycle 1 to a good hero in Cycle 2 to zero picks in Cycle 3. He showed up just three times in Cycle 4, going 1-2. Chipper didn’t have a bad second cycle, but of course was great after that, while Hag is basically the opposite. Even her improved second cycle is worse than Chip’s low end.

Biggest Win% Fallers

I’ve talked about Rhapsody’s (continued) post-Cycle 2 slide, so I won’t rehash that here. Wretched Hag shows us the other side of the coin, as she was generally an okay hero outside of Cycle 2, getting back to 44.4% win in Cycle 4. Torturer actually had a good Cycle 3, but for him that basically means even, as he bookended it with a 33.3% win Cycle 2 and 23.1% win Cycle 4. Tempest’s Cycle 3 was actually the aberration, as he hung around 45% win in the three other cycles, while Ophelia’s been good outside of Cycle 2, typically staying around 55% win.

Let’s finish it off with some leaders for the first four cycles of HoN Tour Season 3 (min. 10 games):